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domenica 18 febbraio 2018

Elezioni 2018 - I: Le Difficoltà Elettive

Parecchi sondaggi analizzano le tendenze elettorali per il prossimo 4 marzo, anche considerando le differenti fasce d'età (*) .

Sapere tuttavia che fra gli elettori dai 18 ai 25 anni il partito X è il favorito con, per ipotesi, il 30% di propensi a votarlo, dice poco.

Dice poco se non conosciamo (e non sono riuscito a trovare dati in merito) qual è il numero degli elettori di quella fascia, assoluto e in proporzione con le altre classi di età.

Personalmente ritengo che la fascia dei più giovani, quella che dovrebbe oltretutto differenziare la Camera dal Senato, non abbia un grande peso, soprattutto in considerazione della denatalità cui assistiamo da decenni.


Non essendo il nostro un Paese "per" vecchi, ma sicuramente "di" vecchi", questi ultimi avranno il peso determinante per i risultati del voto.
Credo che in questa fascia si possano collocare (così ci rientro anch'io!) gli elettori dai 55 anni in su.

Gli esiti del voto in realtà sono difficilmente prevedibili.

Oltre agli elementi che ho succintamente esposto, si dovrebbe tener conto dell'astensionismo, forse anch'esso distinto per fasce di età, e delle norme elettorali, a seguito delle quali difficilmente i seggi parlamentari che verranno assegnati rispecchieranno il gradimento assoluto su base nazionale ricevuto dalle varie forze politiche.

Spero comunque che le medesime forze politiche, le quali sono volute andare al voto con questa (rinnovata?) legge elettorale, non se ne facciano poi scudo per lamentare eventuali asserite impossibilità di "avere una maggioranza".

Richiamarci nuovamente al voto a pochi mesi di distanza sarebbe una tragica beffa, della serie "ritenta sarai più fortunato" (ma quando mai?).


i giornali di marzo
elezioni 2013 - II

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